OCTOBER 16, 2003

　　Statistics can often be manipulated to suit a certain argument, but it is undeniable that ctp is now the UK's number one plate imaging method. By Rod Hayes.

　　Statistics are often interpreted to fit a particular strategy or as a sales tool, but this is not to dismiss their importance or value, for well compiled statistics have merit in the way they can shed light on trends and developments.

　　As far as the UK printing industry is concerned, a decent measure of its vitality, aside from paper consumption, is the index of plate sales. Put both together in some way and the result would be an accurate benchmark of industry activity.

　　Excellent indicator

　　Newspaper pagination has always been an excellent indicator of how our industry as a whole is moving and Agfa, which has a dominant role in the newspaper sector, is well placed to compile such figures.

　　Mike Loose, Agfa plate product manager, lives and dies to a fair extent on statistics. Addressing a recent gathering about plates, he says: "The current trend for overall plate sales of any kind in the UK for the past three years is flat; the trend is only averaging little more than 1%." While not revelatory in itself, for that statistic is largely reflecting the obvious, Mr Loose is not one given to adding spin when none is warranted. When asked if he sees any prospects for growth in the near future, he says: "No, I can see little change until advertising spend increases."

　　The 1% borders closely on the statistically irrelevant, but as Mr Loose delves deeper into the figures some very interesting trends start to emerge.

　　"During 2002," Mr Loose says, "the sales of ctp plates passed the 50% of all plate sales and now accounts for 66% of sales."

　　So in less than five years, according to Agfa's figures, ctp has gone from 4% to 66% of all plates sales. What can be done with this information? Its value depends on what role in the industry you play. A production manager considering ctp may like to consider that wasted plate levels, particularly now the systems are mature, means that spoilage levels are infinitesimal compared with conventional. Immediately, ctp has a considerable commercial advantage compared with those who are still analogue. If you don't think that ctp increases the efficient use of the plates, think of this as just one example; minders laying between the units spotting out positive plates and in the process stuffing them up becomes a thing of the past with ctp.

　　But can the statistics establish clear water between visible light or thermal imaging technologies?

　　Here the figures become a bit ambiguous but there is plenty of meat and drink to be had for careful interpretation.

　　UK is number five

　　The UK is number five on a world plate consumption list. Japan leads, US, China and Germany follow and Germany would trail the UK if the figures were compiled on a per capita basis. Mr Loose says: "Germany has sales of around 25 million sqm while the UK has 22 million sqm, but in each case visible light enjoys greater sales than thermal.

　　But these figures can be a little disingenuous as they include newspaper consumption which in Europe gives a 95% share to visible plate material. Pat Holloway, marketing manager of Kodak Polychrome Graphics, which produces only thermal plates, says: "We lost early ground in this sector and there is no doubt we are having a fight to increase our share. Recent successes particularly in mainland Europe have brought our share up to around 4%."

　　Split is much closer

　　Stripping out newspaper sales suggests that the split is much closer, but of course these figures are a little more difficult to get hold of. The trend however would suggest that the majority of new systems being installed are violet diode visible light systems rather than thermal. Laurence Roberts, managing director of Graphic Systems at Agfa UK, says: "The past growth in ctp has been strongest in the B1 sector, and this is now a mature market. There is plenty of room for growth in B2 and B3 but it must be remembered that on a square metre basis three times as many B2 sales have to be made to equal that of B1."

　　And the market is far from settled so statistics are going to be particularly important over the coming 12 months or so.

　　Eyes will be on Creo which is launching its own brand plate, almost certainly based on a coating technology it developed for spraying directly on a bare cylinder on press for imaging in situ.

　　Its approach is that a number of plate making lines around the world, which may have been losing competitiveness for lack of a ctp technology, gain a new lease of life by producing the Creo plate under licence.

　　Boudewijn Neijens, Creo's vice president global corporate marketing speaking at Graph Expo, says: "Quality control issues are no different now than before, as we control manufacture of 'the gloop' and each of the licensed sites all have quality control systems." The ready availability of a low cost thermal plate bundled with a supplier committed to thermal technologies might swing the pendulum back to thermal.

　　Temporary blip

　　And that 1% growth in consumption is accepted as a temporary blip. Once recession ends, demand will pick up something that the likes of Agfa are anticipating, returning to historical increases aligned to GDP growth. However Agfa and others are looking elsewhere. Agfa has, for example, opened a plant at Wuxi in China to serve what is already the fastest growing market in the world where growth in consumption is well into double figures.

[时间：2004-03-15  作者：Bisenet  来源：Bisenet]