What is it about predictions that fascinate us so much? Undoubtedly, it is our inherent survival instincts that make us yearn for a glimpse of the future. Through predictions, we feel we are better able to prepare and therefore make safer steps forward. Then why is it we still believe in weather forecasters? Their success rate is not much better than forecasting via my aunt's arthritis or utilizing the local tree frogs.

　　I say this because I'm about to hit you with some harsh hurricane warnings. My forecast, however, will also be in perspective: I want you to get a sense of not only how things are changing, but why. Through better understanding, you can help shape the future, rather than simply trying to ride out the storm. And you'll probably never have to rely on the tree frogs (or my aunt) to see what's coming.

　　For instance, let's begin with the old specter that is once again rearing its ugly head – the "print is dead" scenario. If you were at the recent Seybold show in Boston, you heard one of the keynote speakers say just that. Now, this is just a bit aggressive. In fact, this kind of statement is typically said in order to increase attendance (or readers) by shocking them into checking out the event (or publication). I am all for clarity through information, but these "death" notices are scaring the cyan out of printers.

　　The news may not be great, agreed, but let's first ask the right questions. Are we discussing the future of publishing or of print? The distribution of information itself, or the ink-on-paper industry? Often, these are lumped together as one entity. But that's not quite correct: Publishers provide information collection, creation and distribution; print is just one of the forms publishers use to deliver their product. They rely on each other, but if we look at them separately it is just print that has a harder road ahead.

　　The enormous changes in available media types are shaking both print and publishing. The publishers are trying to decide which, or how many, forms are necessary to distribute their work; all the while, printers are primarily concerned with how this change might reduce the demand for the physical printed piece. The current (and increasing) reduction in printed products is very generational – meaning most generations actually prefer paper printing. But upcoming generations are computer literate at age four; they are growing up in a world of non-physical information. This new media group is expecting on-demand information and is less willing to weed through a newspaper or magazine. So although print is not currently in decline, growth has effectively stopped and will begin to drop with the generational turnover. While printers are asking if they should go direct-to- plate, publishers are asking if they should go direct-to-Web.

　　So are we are going paperless? I once said, "We will not go paperless until we can electronically read a book on the porch." Well, the first steps to achieve just that have been taken. At the previously mentioned Seybold Boston, an entire section of the show floor was dedicated to terrifying press operators; this electronic book section featured an ambitious crew dedicated to bringing on the George Jetson era. It is their belief that, very soon, most books will be downloaded into handheld devices for mass consumption. Although this crowd is not at all concerned with the printers' plight, they are very conscientious about how to cater to traditional book publishers. Their primary intention is to make nearly any book available in secure electronic form, avoiding piracy issues. Their other goal is to create a "book" that changes according to the customer's needs. Imagine a student having only one book to carry around to different classes – one that can be easily and cost-effectively updated each semester.

　　Interface changes and creation tools
　　Workstations are getting cheaper and faster every day. It's so bad that we feel burned before we remove the packaging. Don't count on this changing anytime soon. The good news is that computers are so zippy that hardware upgrades are rarely necessary (most people only upgrade their Macs because they get tired of the blueberry flavor).

　　There are, however, a few factors to debate in regard to the future of the workstation. We'll look at some of these next issue, but I'll address here an old question: Is the Mac still the platform of choice for the publishing industry? There was a time when that was a valid question, but with Mr. Jobs back at the helm, it's hardly worth asking. Sure the iCandy consumer Macs turn a lot of us off, but they re-fueled Apple's comeback and allowed the company to build great professional models for the industry. So will they keep up the good work? Well, Apple tried to ensure this by bringing Jobs on officially as CEO. There is now little doubt that Apple still has what it takes to fulfill our needs, and all the critical publishing software manufacturers seem to be committed to running on the platform in the future.

　　Since the hardware platforms have given us the freedom of great speed at reasonable prices, it's up to the software to provide us with the big innovations of the future. And, indeed, this is where we will see the most dramatic changes. Operating system (OS) developers have been working on steps in user functionality, and the options have changed dramatically. But which OS do you focus on – Mac, Windows or something new? For ease, many feel you should pick one platform and be exclusive. Certainly that has support advantages, but truly successful companies have embraced the software tools that serve them best. They do not suppose that any one company can provide everything they need any more than a hammer can be the only item in a toolbox. This is an important philosophy for another reason as well: Operating system stability is far from guaranteed. New versions and the manufacturers themselves can be rather unsteady, even the big guys.

　　Microsoft, despite its clash with the Justice Department, has been working hard on consolidating its different operating systems. The company has combined the style and features of both Win98 and Windows NT into one name with multi levels, although they have added little functionality with the new name. This, combined with increasing customer resentment, causes most analysts to predict radical changes for the company soon. Most users consider Microsoft to have a very sure future when, in fact, it is just as vulnerable as any other. Even Bill Gates has begun other ventures to prepare for the future shift. The biggest drawback is that Microsoft has not delivered adequate support options for electronic prepress. After all, Microsoft marketers see business and home users as their primary focus. Poor color management, font and PostScript support keep it from becoming the OS of choice for professional publishers. As a server platform, it is far better; although not as robust as most Unix servers, it is a good, inexpensive option for many shops.

　　The soon-to-be-released Mac OS 10 will be a giant shift in Apple's direction, and it's long overdue. To be up to modern standards, an OS must be truly multi-threaded and be capable of multitasking. OS 10 will have those abilities that Unix and Windows NT already have. With many new features geared toward workgroups, some will consider OS 10 a viable server platform. Server software history may keep some away. Not only has Apple been behind for some time, but it also has built a bad reputation of selling a server solution only to discontinue it in a year or two. It is likely Apple will not be able to break into the enterprise market quickly. Therefore, it kept a firm grip on publishing by providing companies like Adobe with a good foundation.

　　The only other real player is one that is turning heads, regardless of the industry: Linux has been the big leader in what is being called "the open source movement." It will affect us less in terms of what OS we use and more in terms of what the operating systems will become – making them highly customized to our needs and less cumbersome to operate. Suffice to say Linux developers are not only breaking the rules, but they're eliminating them for us all.

　　Regardless of what OS you will be running, the applications that sit atop it are about to change as well. The software manufacturers' focus is now on the evolving landscape of output mediums. First, on the traditional side, manufacturers are increasing the fidelity of the printed piece by incorporating various types of Hi-Fi color, including Hexachrome technology. This is in direct response to the printers' need to increase quality and the desire to prove the press is mightier than the color copier. These same products are also accommodating the new digital publishing age. No design package is now complete without the ability to output as a PDF, HTML or XML. This is great news because you can continue to use the same creation tools and simply choose the file type du jour.

　　Another trend in software is to use it without buying the package. This new "pay-as-you-go" model combines the original ideals of free software with the current online reality. Many packages are being released over the Net, so that you only pay for time spent using the system. This is not unlike a copier "click" charge, where you can use the machine and you are charged a per-copy price. A good example is the application of media asset management (MAM). Few will disagree that anyone in publishing/print should have some system of managing electronic files. But getting a MAM solution up and running can be a daunting task. What if someone else maintains the giant server, complicated software, databases and the IS staff to keep it alive? This and similar models are fueling an explosion of new dot.com companies in our market space – not a new concept in business but new in the electronic prepress world because most are accustomed to having local control. Larger companies would less likely opt for this model due to security issues and custom needs; however, it gives small to medium businesses the opportunity to participate without a large initial cash outlay.

　　Changes by group
　　All of these trends and changes will affect different end users and market groups in different ways, of course. For instance:

　　• Publishers will struggle with finding the most effective way to get their message to the target audiences. The choices will be vast and confusing – and many of them will produce very little return. The good news is that content will still be the key and most of the process will be the same. Most publishers will likely find the right medium for their message.

　　• Good designers will still be in demand. Although modern tools allow more people to do the work themselves, bad design will prove the need for professionals. The file type of the final product will be changing, but design skills will remain valuable. By most predictions, there should even be some growth in this area.

　　• Prepress resellers: Shrinking prepress reseller margins and increasing support complications are making it tough on those who resell our supplies and tools. There will continue to be many mergers until we are down to a few major resellers. However, new startups will continue to emerge, and although these will be integrators rather than resellers, they will fill the service gaps that the resellers can no longer afford to.

　　• Printers: There will be a lot of consolidation in the printing market as well. Price and speed are often becoming more important than quality, which will force many printers to find alternatives. Mergers and print groups will give them that ability. Most should focus on and accommodate specific customers and markets. Reduction in the total amount of printing needs will occur, but there are many needs that will take a hundred years to disappear.

　　Getting prepared
　　The changes in the consumers will undoubtedly shape our future. Every year, more people are willing to get their information and entertainment in non-printed form. Current dynamics are almost directly correlated with age; the older you are the more likely you are to prefer paper over the keyboard. But, again, as the young grow up, this will no longer be the case. Even those who need a paper version are commonly able to output many things on their own via home color printers. They are then taking advantage of quick color copiers to fill their higher volume needs. This leaves mostly commercial printing such as labels and packaging as the few guaranteed targets for printers.

　　The dynamic may be changing, but it will not be like a hurricane – it will be more like the tide coming in. You can see the water rising and prepare for it. I am not interested in an all electronic world. I'm sure even future generations will grow to learn the pleasures of taking a paper book to the beach – not charging its batteries.

[时间：2003-12-22  作者：Bisenet  来源：Bisenet]