Foreword

　　Consumer technologies will spur growth

　　Despite recent problems with corporate profitability in the print sector, brought on by a prolonged advertising recession and subsequent cutbacks in capital investment, the graphic arts industries are still alive and well with emergent consumer goods-related technologies possibly spearheading a much brighter future.

　　In the print sector, offset lithography will be the dominant production process, certainly in the UK market, while gravure's market share is likely to hold up better across shorter run lengths than before as the costs of cylinder preparation has declined in relative terms in recent years. In the packaging sector, flexography is nevertheless likely to carry on achieving high rates of growth. However, the best hope to spur future growth in the industry is the nascent digital printing sector. It is still a relatively small part of the overall market but, according to Pira research, looks set to double its market share over the next five years. Within digital, expect inkjet to become the gazelle process with very rapid rates of expansion achieved. Given that digital is still a very young technology and that size, speed and reliability of presses will continue to increase year on year, there is every likelihood that the market share of this growing area could even reach incursion rates of up to 20% market share.

　　The packaging sector is expected to continue to grow in line with overall GDP although net volume growth will be sluggish as a direct result of environmental pressure and changes in consumer behaviour which are leading to developments such as pack minimisation, increased use of refill packs for multi-use containers and changes in materials technology. Plastics, especially flexible, will continue to eat into the paper and board market and at the same time will further erode the use of aluminium and glass for carbonated beverages.

　　However, it is the packaging, retailing and consumer goods supply chains where the heartbeat of the technology revolution affecting our sectors looks likely to be located. At Pira, we have identified a number of key disruptive technologies that will look likely to have a high impact on the package, and, indeed, print and paper, sectors over the coming years.

　　These are:

• Digital package printing
• Intelligent packaging
• Printed electronics
• Active packaging
• Radio frequency identification tags
• Brand-protection devices.

　　Digital package printing

　　A variable image, print-on-demand printing method that gives fast turnaround, short-run print work and is available in different performance categories. It may compete with digital printing on traditional print methods and is increasingly gaining adoption in commercial print packaging application but involves high capital cost.

　　Intelligent packaging

　　A kind of packaging that uses devices to sense and register certain changes in the pack and its content. Such devices monitor the condition of the packaged product to provide information on its quality during transport and storage. For example, intelligent packaging could be colour-impregnated labels (film) that change colour to signal an external or internal temperature change that can show if, and how long, a package has been held outside a safe temperature zone.

　　Printed electronics/organic semiconductors

　　Using organic polymer-based semiconductors rather than silicon, made possible by a breakthrough in 1990 at Cambridge University, could potentially bring the print industry into the high-octane growth world of electronics. Existing print processes can be utilised to print flat or laminar electronics onto a variety of substrates including paper. These organic semiconductors could support a completely new range of applications such as computerised clothing, disposable mobile phones, video posters or packaging that has voice, data or video functions. In addition, it may displace silicon in certain existing applications - most notably low-cost RFID printed onto consumer goods. Today organic semiconductors is worth $300 million compared to silicon's $142 billion, but this will change as the technology improves and applications become more mainstream.

　　Active packaging

　　Active packaging contains additives that can alter the condition of packaged goods to enhance shelf life. Active pack concepts include oxygen scavengers and emitters, moisture absorbers, modified and controlled atmosphere packaging, carbon dioxide scavengers and emitters, ethylene scavengers and emitters, ethanol emitters, anti-bacterial films and microwave susceptors.

　　RFID

　　Radio frequency identification (RFID) tags contain data readable at a distance using an electronic device, even when not visible to the naked eye. RFID techniques applied to packaging are often called smart packages. Today RF tags are limited to upstream use in supply chains - typically being used to track and trace containers or pallets. Providing the costs fall sufficiently, the next 10 years could see RFID begin to take over from barcoding as the standard ID technology for all consumer goods. This is far from a pipe dream. Gillette recently bought half-a-billion tags for use on its Mach 3 razor product and Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, has already vowed to make adoption of RFID a key plank of future strategy.

　　Brand protection

　　Brand-protection devices are added to packaging to prevent counterfeiting and/or parallel devices trading. This is an increasing problem with knock-off goods accounting for up to 7% of world trade with estimated growth rates of between 15% and 20%. Various security devices are used which include overt, covert, integrated and stuck on. Innovative detection methods include holograms with hidden messages, RFID tags (magnetic or not), inks (UV fluorescent), tear strips, security threads and taggants.

　　As well as breathing new life into the packaging sector, many of these technologies could help revitalise print and paper. With the publishing market in crisis due to the prolonged advertising drought, getting into printing of electronics, RFID, brand-protection devices and variable data - all expected to be stellar sectors - could provide welcome succour to suppliers and printers in the coming years.

[时间：2003-11-17  作者：Bisenet  来源：Bisenet]