全球第三大矿业公司力拓(Rio Tinto)预计，由于美国经济的迅速复苏和中国经济持续强劲增长，金属价格会在接近年底时出现反弹。力拓目前是必和必拓(BHP Billiton)的敌意收购对象。

　　力拓将在今天发布2007年业绩时，宣布对贱金属及矿石价格的乐观预期。

　　在接受英国《金融时报》采访时，力拓首席经济学家威维克 图普勒(Vivek Tulpulé)表示，虽然价格已经持续上涨了5年，一些大宗商品“仍未达到周期顶峰”。

　　他表示，随着美国经济的复苏，价格“很有可能”在今年底或是2009年初出现上涨。结合中国持续旺盛的需求，这将“形成出乎人们意料之外的消费反弹”。

　　力拓正在抵抗竞争对手必和必拓价值1470亿美元的换股收购方案。过去几个月，力拓一直在强调铝和铁矿石价格的强劲走势，以此提高自己的股价和防御能力，因为该公司对这两种矿产的投资力度高过必和必拓。

　　作为贱金属价格的风向标，铜价昨日飙升至每吨7898美元的3个月高点，较年初上涨17%，原因是市场预计全球最大生产国智利的产量将下滑，而中国的需求将进一步增长。

　　由于电力短缺导致中国部分企业关闭了冶炼厂，来自中国的供应中断，从1月份以来，铝价已上涨了12.5%。

　　图普勒表示：“从资源市场的角度看，中国的增长目前是市场价格最重要的推动因素。”

　　图普勒称，美国的消费现在占全球铜供应量的14%，铝供应量的15%-16%，而中国在这两种金属消费量中所占的比例均达到25%。

　　在全球海运铁矿石方面，中国的消费占据了40%的份额，而美国仅占1%。美国主要依靠本土铁矿石供应及废铁来满足炼钢厂的需求。

 

[next] 
Rio sees market-startling metals bounce 
By Rebecca Bream and Javier Blas in London

　　Rio Tinto, the world's third largest mining company and the target of a hostile takeover by BHP Billiton, is forecasting a bounce in metals prices towards the end of this year, driven by a swift recovery in US economic growth and continued robust economic expansion in China.

　　The company will paint a bullish outlook for the price of base metals and minerals as it publishes its 2007 results today.

　　In an interview with the Financial Times, Vivek Tulpulé, Rio's chief economist, said some commodities “have yet to reach their cyclical peaks” even though prices have now been rising for five years.

　He said that it was “very possible” that prices would rise later this year or in early 2009 as the US economy recovers. Combined with continued strong demand from China, this would “create a bounce in consumption that people just don't see coming”.

　　Rio, battling a $147bn paper offer from rival BHP, has in the past few months highlighted the robustness of aluminium and iron ore prices, to which its exposure is greater than BHP's, as a way of boosting its share price and also its defence.

　　The price of copper, the base metals bellwether, yesterday surged to a three-month high of $7,898 a tonne, up 17 per cent since the start of the year, on the back of forecasts of lower output in Chile, the world's largest producer, and higher demand in China.

　　Aluminium prices have risen 12.5 per cent since January, boosted by supply disruption in China, where companies are shutting down smelters due to power shortages.

　　“From a resource market perspective, growth in China is the most important current driver of market outcomes,” he said.

　　The US now consumes 14 per cent of the world's copper supplies and 15-16 per cent of world aluminium supplies, while China accounts for 25 per cent of both copper and aluminium consumption, according to Mr Tulpulé.

　　China also consumes about 40 per cent of the world's seaborne iron ore, while the US buys just 1 per cent of it, relying on domestic iron ore supply and scrap steel to feed its steel mills.

[时间：2008-02-14  作者：Rebecca Bream Javier Blas 译者/李  来源：《金融时报》]