反常的暴风雨已经让中国这个经济发电站发生短路。由于交通和电力严重中断——卡车滞留公路，31个省市自治区有半数供电受到限制，这个经济体机房内的轰鸣声减弱了下来。

　　大雪消融之后，经济能否恢复正常？显然，50年来最恶劣的冬季天气需要人们付出代价，但这也暴露出中国政府能源政策的缺陷。投入方面的市场力量和中央计划经济对定价的限制，绑住了电力生产商的手脚。澳大利亚和南非等主要市场供应中断，加剧了全球需求紧张的局面，令煤炭价格攀升至创纪录高点。尽管迄今为止，国内生产可以满足中国大部分的需求，但当地煤价也在攀升——只不过幅度要小得多而已。中国约有80%的电力来自燃煤电厂，因而煤价上涨会立即影响利润率。花旗(Citigroup)指出，独立的上市电力生产商今年耗煤量的65%到95%使用合同价格，2008年的价格比去年平均高出10%。

　　短期来看，中国绝对不会选择把涨价转嫁到最终用户身上：今年伊始，拼命抑制通胀急剧上升的中国政府就冻结了公用事业价格。实际上，在寒冷的上海流传着这样一个话题，说某些生产商关闭电厂，是因为它们赚取不到足够的利润，而不是因为搞不到煤。当然，由于担心通胀蔓延，加上3月份将召开的重大政治会议，短期内大幅提高价格的可能性似乎很小。正如花旗所指出的那样，尽管中国热煤价格上涨了11%，去年的价格却没有什么变化。乐观主义者估计，电力状况在一个月左右的时间内应该会有所好转，即将到来的春节假期可以让电力生产商重新储好煤炭，在工厂重新开工时全速运转起来。这可能会让消费者感到一些宽慰，但投资者坚持投资煤炭还是要比投资电力更稳妥。

　　Lex专栏是由FT评论家联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析。

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CHINA POWER 
Lex

　　Freak snowstorms have short-circuited the economic powerhouse China. With transport and power seriously disrupted – trucks are stranded on roads while brownouts are affecting half the country's 31 provinces – the economy's engine rooms are not so much humming as spluttering.

　　Will normal business resume once the snow melts? The worst winter weather in 50 years is clearly exacting a toll, but it also exposes Beijing's flawed energy policy. Power producers are hamstrung by market forces on inputs and by the diktats of a centrally-planned economy on pricing. Coal prices have been hitting record highs, as voracious demand globally is exacerbated by supply disruptions in the key markets of Australia and South Africa. Although by far the bulk of Chinese demand is met by domestic production, local prices are also climbing – albeit at massively more modest levels. Since some 80 per cent of China's electricity is generated by coal-fired power plants, that immediately eats into margins. Listed independent power producers are using contracted prices for 65-95 per cent of this year's consumption, according to Citigroup, and 2008 prices are on average 10 per cent higher than last year.

　　Passing that on to end-users is simply not an option in the short term: Beijing, desperately trying to temper spiralling inflation, froze utility prices at the start of the year. Indeed, one thesis doing the rounds in chilly Shanghai is that some producers are shuttering plants because they can't make enough profits rather than because of difficulties procuring coal. Certainly the chances of a tariff hike look slim in the short term, with fears of inflation rife and big political meetings coming up in March. As Citi points out, tariffs remained flat last year despite an 11 per cent increase in Chinese thermal coal prices. Optimists reckon the power situation should be rectified within a month or so, with the upcoming lunar new year holidays allowing power producers to re-stock and to be back firing on all cylinders when factories re-open. That may bring some cheer to consumers, but investors would still be safer to stick with coal rather than power.

[时间：2008-01-30  作者：译者/徐柳  来源：英国《金融时报》Lex专栏 ]