英国《金融时报》Lex专栏

　　按照过分乐观的设想，中国将买下现金紧缺的美国人不再负担得起的所有商品，从而拯救世界。但近期的数据显示，情况或许恰恰相反。在目前这个可能是全球经济最糟糕的时刻，中国终于成功地踩住刹车了吗？

　　（中国）去年12月份出口增速同比回落至22%，而去年全年的出口增速为26%。去年年底的信贷萎缩甚至更为急剧。2007年11月份和12月份，新增贷款额仅分别为870亿元人民币和480亿元人民币，其中12月份新增贷款仅相当于全年新增贷款总量的1%以上。显然，中国经济降温举措的效果正开始显现。这也不足为怪。（政府）命令银行停止放贷，是一种相当有效的控制贷款增长的办法，即便这对于抑制投资几乎没什么作用。

　　但即使出于这个原因，矫枉过正的风险也并不高：与需求疲软不同，从理论上讲政策措施可以随意收放。为了减少能源密集型的低价值商品出口，中国政府取消了给予出口商的退税，这应当会使出口增长转向，而非全盘抑制出口。数据也支持这种说法。全球需求走软降低了整体出口增速，但以季度衡量，服装、鞋类和钢铁出口的降幅远高于电器出口。

　　与此同时，贷款限额意味着，2008年的信贷增速将低于2007年的水平，但仍较为强劲。目前2008年刚刚开始了两周，坊间证据表明，信贷增长仍颇为乏力。但即使情况确实如此，这也不一定表明经济增长将大幅放缓。充盈的企业资产负债状况，为企业前往海外资本市场融资的潜力提供了支撑。苏格兰皇家银行(RBS)表示，中国约60%左右的固定资产投资来自于企业自筹资金。

　　中国的需求不会抵消全球经济放缓的影响。但中国经济不合时宜地踩住刹车的可能性，却只是增加了那么一点点。

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　　China's slowdown 
 
　　China, according to the panglossian scenario, will save the world by buying up all the goods cash-strapped Americans can no longer afford. Recent data, however, suggest the reverse may be the case. Has China finally succeeded in applying the brakes at the worst possible moment for the global economy?

　　December export growth decelerated to 22 per cent year-on-year, compared with 26 per cent for the full year. The year-end contraction in credit was even steeper. Just RMB87bn of new loans were made in November and RMB48bn in December 2007, the latter representing just over 1 per cent of the full year's new loan book. Clearly China's efforts to cool the economy are starting to bite. No wonder. Ordering banks to stop lending is a remarkably effective way of reining in loan growth, even if it does little to curtail investment.

　　For that very reason, however, the risks of over-shooting are mild: policy measures, unlike weak demand, can theoretically be switched off and on at will. The removal of tax rebates on exporters, designed to crack down on energy-intensive, low-value goods, should re-skew export growth rather than curtail it altogether. Data support this. Weaker global demand has crimped growth across the board, but on a quarterly basis, exports of clothing, shoes and steel all fell far more sharply than electrical goods.

　　Loan quotas, meanwhile, imply that credit growth will undershoot 2007 but was still robust. So far, barely two weeks into the year, anecdotal evidence suggests loan growth remains feeble. But even if that proves to be the case, it would not necessarily signal a sharp economic slowdown. The potential to access overseas capital markets is underpinned by fat corporate balance sheets. According to Royal Bank of Scotland, around 60 per cent of fixed asset investment in China is financed by self-raised funds.

　　Chinese demand will not offset a global slowdown. But the chances of the country skidding to an untimely halt are only marginally less remote.

[时间：2008-01-16  作者：Lex 朱冠华/译  来源：英 金融时报]