Most of the major changes were not those that printers said they needed. Printers love the status quo. They only change when they cannot afford not to.

　　March 9, 2007 -- Polling is an inexact science. Much of the equipment and software we all use is based on how developers interpret our needs and translate them into products. They do this by asking us questions about what we do and how we do it.

　　In 1936, the Literary Digest, a popular magazine of the time, conducted a telephone poll of its readership about who would win the presidency. It concluded that Governor Alf Landon of Kansas would beat incumbent Franklin Roosevelt. The readership of the Digest was basically Republican (as Landon and perhaps many telephone owners were). But FDR won one of the biggest landslides in political history, with 75 percent of the popular vote and all the electoral votes except two; Literary Digest went out of business afterwards.

　　In the 1940s, Roper and Gallup improved polling techniques. But in the 1948 election most of the polls awarded the election to Governor Tom Dewey of New York as opposed to incumbent Harry Truman. Truman won and showed off a headline from the Republican Chicago Tribune saying “DEWEY WINS.”

　　In a a classic sociology study entitled "Middletown," the authors showed how citizens of a mid-America town had opinions that aligned with America’s opinions. Ten years later a follow-up study of the town showed there was little change in the opinions between the town and the country.

　　With "Middletown" as inspiration, a 1947 film with Jimmy Stewart was the first about pollsters. Stewart finds a perfect community where the opinions of the citizens mirror those of the American populace as a whole. His intention is to use the citizens as his polling lab rats, but as the movie progresses he becomes involved with Jane Wyman. When she discovers Stewart's plans she reveals them, and the town goes crazy. Their new power goes to their heads, and instead of giving sensible answers to questions they give outlandish ones.?

　　There are over 20 researchers who regularly poll or survey the printing industry. I am one of them. We use lists of printing firms and either mail or call or post questions on a Website. No doubt some of you have heard from my students who do most of my surveying. From these polls we derive snapshots of what the industry is doing and, in some cases, project how it may change over time.?

　　In 1968 Compugraphic showed a new phototypesetter. Printers looked at the output and said “That’s crap. How much is the machine?” “$8,995.” “That’s not bad crap.” That little machine went on to convert an entire industry away from hot metal.

　　But sometimes surveys do not reflect the truth.

　　In 1993 Xerox had a Fuji color printer code-named Apex. They surveyed printers who unanimously said the quality was too low. Xerox sent Apex back to Japan. In 1995 Scitex hooked it up to its own front end and called it Spontane. Even at $200,000 they sold a number of systems. I recall Xerox personnel standing around the periphery of the Scitex booth at Drupa shaking their heads. Apex became the Docucolor 40 and printers bought it.

　　I have told this story many times -- in 1968 Compugraphic showed a new phototypesetter. Printers looked at the output and said “That’s crap. How much is the machine?” “$8,995.” “That’s not bad crap.” That little machine went on to convert an entire industry away from hot metal.

　　Too much of what suppliers count on for their research and development is based on surveys to the same seven people. OK, I am kidding, but I think that the same people keep getting surveyed and the result is just more of the same. Sometimes the groups surveyed are not representative of the industry -- they are just people with the time and inclination to respond.

　　One researcher called me for years and I would make up machine names. “What imagesetter do you have?” “It’s a Dumont 7860; the 7810 was not very good.” In most cases the person calling is not that knowledgeable. Another surveyor once claimed that I had stolen heir questions. How many different ways can you ask “How much printing do you buy?”

　　As I approach 50 years in this industry, I realize that most of the major changes were not those that printers said they needed. Printers love the status quo. They only change when they cannot afford not to. In 1991 Gerber showed the first CTP at a PRINT show. It was largely ignored until digital workflows were mandated by publishers and printers made the leap.?

　　Some companies use the Steve Jobs method -- don't use focus groups; just do it right.　　

　　So take everything we all say with that proverbial grain of salt.

 

[时间：2007-03-16  作者：Frank Romano  来源：信息中心]